The Speed-to-Production Constant in Enterprise Hiring
Speed to production is how fast a new hire reaches their first real output, and in a study of 10,765 hires it followed a measurable economic constant. Among 679 producing agents, each day faster to the production milestone was worth about $54 more in annual premium credit, or about $35 after controlling for source channel and tenure. The relationship held under every robustness test the researchers ran. Faster ramps were worth real money, and the effect was larger for higher producers.
Source: "Decision Traces," Saad Bin Shafiq, NODES, 2026. Speed analysis on 679 producing agents in the 2025 cohort, inside the carrier's VPC. Read it on arXiv.
Put a dollar figure on your own ramp: Hiring ROI Calculator.
What speed to production means here
The study measured speed as the number of days a new agent took to reach the carrier's production milestone. Production itself was measured as annual premium credit, an objective system-of-record number. The relationship between the two was linear:
annual premium credit = $13,964 minus $54.35 times days to the milestone
The correlation was about negative 0.26, with a p-value below 0.000001 and a bootstrap confidence interval of roughly $39 to $70 per day. In plain terms, every day shaved off the ramp added measurable production.
A constant that survived every robustness check
The slope held up under bootstrap resampling, winsorizing, trimming, log transformation, quantile regression, and a multivariate model that controlled for source channel and months of active selling. That conservative model produced about $35 per day. The relationship also strengthened at the top: the slope for the highest producers was several times the slope for the lowest.
The pattern shows up as a clean staircase in production per month of tenure:
| Days to production milestone | Median production per month |
|---|---|
| 0 to 30 | $1,160 |
| 31 to 60 | $913 |
| 61 to 90 | $856 |
| 91 to 120 | $677 |
| 121 or more | $650 |
The fastest agents earned nearly twice as much per month as the slowest, and this held after normalizing for tenure.
Score moderates the economics of speed
A subtle finding: the behavioral score did not change who ramped fast. Low-scored and high-scored agents reached the 60-day mark at nearly identical rates. What the score predicted was who got paid for ramping fast. High-scored agents captured about $114 per day of acceleration, roughly 2.8 times the $41 captured by low-scored agents. See the scoring results.
Why this stays invisible without connected systems
The HRIS holds the milestone dates and the production numbers. The hiring side rarely connects ramp speed back to dollars. Once those systems are joined through a decision trace, speed becomes a line item you can value and manage. See how.
What this does not say
One nuance matters for honesty. Over the same period, the overall production rate fell from 41.5% to 21.1%, alongside more than doubled hiring volume and a shift in source channels. The accurate read is fewer but faster producers, each generating more per month (about $812 versus roughly $395) and roughly $1.12M in additional annual production from speed across 680 producers. This is a claim about what speed is worth once someone produces, not a claim that the system raised everyone's odds of producing. Single carrier, single deployment. The method generalizes, the specific magnitudes may not.
Frequently asked questions
What is speed to production in hiring? It is how quickly a new hire reaches their first meaningful output. In this study it was the number of days an agent took to reach the carrier's sales production milestone.
How much is a faster ramp worth? About $54 in annual premium credit per day faster, or about $35 after controlling for source channel and tenure. The effect was larger for higher producers.
Does a faster start mean a better hire? Not by itself. Speed was worth the most for agents who already scored well on behavioral assessment, who captured about 2.8 times more value per day of acceleration.
Is the speed constant reliable? It held under bootstrap, winsorizing, trimming, log transformation, quantile regression, and a multivariate control model.
Related reading
- From AUC 0.647 to 0.735: the scoring story
- Decision traces, explained
- What 10,765 hires revealed about resume keywords
See what a day of ramp speed is worth in your own data. Book a 30-minute walkthrough.