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the paper · arxiv · econ.em · april 2026N=10,765 hires · one F500 carrier
Decision Traces: What Multi-System Data Fusion Reveals About Institutional Knowledge in Enterprise Hiring
- Of 8,181 ATS keywords parsed, the 3,597 testable predicted production zero times after Bonferroni correction; thirty were anti-predictive.
- Every day saved before the first production milestone is worth $54.35 in projected annual production per producing hire in the reference study.
- One industry-experience filter screened out hires behind $17.7M in observed annual premium credit.
- The Digital Omnibus and AI hiring: what changed, what did notThe EU Digital Omnibus moved high-risk obligations for employment AI to December 2, 2027. Article 50 transparency duties still start August 2, 2026. What changed, and what to do with the runway.
- Mobley and the agent theory: why the human gate is the architecture, not a featureMobley v. Workday is active litigation. The court let claims proceed on an agency theory: delegate rejecting and advancing candidates to a tool, and the vendor can stand in the employer's shoes.
- Decision Traces in Hiring: Multi-System Data FusionDecision traces connect ATS, HRIS, and behavioral data. At one carrier, none of 3,597 testable resume keywords predicted production after correction.
- Do Resume Keywords Predict Job Performance? 10,765 Agents HiredIn a study of 10,765 agents hired, zero of 3,597 resume keywords predicted production after correction, and 30 were anti-predictive.
- Why ATS Keywords Fail to Predict Job PerformanceATS keywords describe past experience but do not forecast performance. A 10,765-agent study tests resume signals against production outcomes.
- Does a College Degree Predict Job Performance?In a study of 10,765 agents hired, a college degree had a weak association with production, with overlapping confidence intervals across education levels.
- The $17.7M Cost of a Single Hiring FilterOne screening rule would have rejected 2,863 producing agents worth $17.7M in annual premium credit. How connecting ATS and HRIS data exposes the cost of a filter.
- AUC 0.647 to 0.735: Data Fusion in Hiring PredictionIn an evaluable n=229 subset at one carrier, personality reached AUC 0.647 and fusion reached 0.735. What those research results mean.
- Which Personality Types Predict Sales Performance?In an evaluable n=229 subset at one carrier, personality reached AUC 0.647. The result does not support screening on a type alone.
- Leadership Drive and Sales Performance: An Observed CurveIn a 10,765-agent study, leadership drive followed an inverted-U pattern. The modest observational result is a question to test, not a screening rule.
- The Economics of Speed to Production in Enterprise HiringAt one insurance carrier, each day faster to the first production milestone was associated with $54.35 more annual production per producing hire.
- The Speed-Volume Trade-Off in High-Volume HiringAt one carrier, hiring volume, source mix, production rate, and ramp speed moved together. Connected outcomes exposed the trade-off without claiming causality.
- Prediction and Moderation: Two Tests for Hiring AIPrediction ranks who may reach an outcome. Moderation tests whether a defined condition changes that outcome differently across groups.
- When a Manager Retires, Their Judgment LeavesDecades of hiring judgment disappears when a manager retires, because it lives in no system. How decision traces capture institutional knowledge as a queryable record.